It sure feels like Wisconsin football might be back after its first win against Penn State since 2011, improving to 3-1 overall and 1-0 in Big Ten play.
Next on the schedule is Michigan State (2-2, 0-1 Big Ten), who comes to Madison after taking a 31-13 loss to the Nebraska Cornhuskers in East Lansing. The Badgers are nearly double-digit favorites over the Spartans.
Now the question is whether Wisconsin can build on its biggest win of the season and take care of business at home.
Here are the BadgerNotes staff predictions for Week 5.
Staff predictions
• Dillon Graff
Season record: 3-1
I’ll admit it: I didn’t see last Saturday coming. I was legitimately shocked.
Wisconsin went into Beaver Stadium, fell behind 17-0, turned the ball over three times, and still found a way to beat No. 13 Penn State. I’ve spent plenty of time questioning whether the progress Luke Fickell has talked about was actually showing up on game days. Against Penn State, it did.
That deserves credit.
It also doesn’t mean I’m suddenly ready to declare everything fixed. I’m still keeping this team at arm’s length. Colton Joseph remains a roller coaster, the offensive line (mostly PJ Wilkins) and running game are still works in progress, and one afternoon doesn’t erase three-plus years of inconsistency.
But winning has a way of changing what a team believes is possible, and Wisconsin finally has something tangible to build on.
That’s what makes Michigan State interesting.
The Spartans have lost two straight, including a 31-13 home loss to Nebraska, and haven’t shown much explosiveness offensively. This feels like a matchup where Wisconsin’s defense should control the terms.
The Badgers held Penn State to 248 yards and 3.8 yards per play, and if that front plays anywhere near that level again, Michigan State is going to have a difficult time sustaining drives.
My bigger question is what Wisconsin does with its newfound momentum.
Beating Penn State matters a lot less if you come home and immediately give some of it back against a team you should beat. Wisconsin doesn’t need another emotional breakthrough. The Badgers need to take care of business.
Maybe that Penn State win becomes the moment this group started believing in itself. Now we get to find out what it does with that belief.
Prediction: Wisconsin 23, Michigan State 13
• Christian Borman
Season record: 3-1
I kept telling myself I needed to see it to believe it.
I saw it, and I believe it. The Badgers are back.
But I want to temper my expectations. Do I think they are going to suddenly become College Football Playoff contenders? No.
But do I think they’ll be a relevant program rather than a doormat in the Big Ten? You bet I do.
The defensive unit on this team is what I expected at the start of the season. They can keep this team in just about any game, as long as the offense avoids multiple catastrophic mistakes. The offense is still a work in progress, and you take the good with the bad in the Colton Joseph roller coaster experience.
I think Penn State is a much better team than Michigan State, which will come to Madison with a long injury list, including their star running back, Cam Edwards, who has already been ruled out.
I think the Badgers will build on last week’s momentum and come away with a double-digit home win before heading into the bye week.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 14
• Seamus Rohrer
Season record: 3-1
After notching the biggest win of the Luke Fickell era, Wisconsin needs to make sure it doesn’t fall victim to the same kind of upset a week later. All of the positive vibes swirling around the program right now? They go out the window if the Badgers lose on Saturday.
Fortunately for Wisconsin, I don’t foresee that happening.
Michigan State might be without arguably its two best players (tailback Cam Edwards, who’s already ruled out, and linebacker Jordan Hall, who’s doubtful). The Spartans haven’t been particularly good in any one category, and their quarterback Alessio Milivojevic is as turnover-prone as Colton Joseph — but without the immense upside.
I expect a jubilant and rowdy Camp Randall Stadium Saturday morning. I expect Wisconsin’s defense to keep riding its momentum from its upset performance last week. I expect Joseph to cut down on the horrific mistakes.
This is simply a bad matchup for Michigan State, particularly when the Spartans have the ball. I can see the Badgers’ offense sputtering a little, but give me Wisconsin to win and cover.
Prediction: Wisconsin 27, Michigan State 13
• Charlie Pietz
Season record: 3-1
The Badgers are coming off their biggest win in seven years and will likely be playing in front of a sold-out Homecoming crowd at Camp Randall.
You really can’t ask for much more momentum than that. For the first time under Luke Fickell, I think we could see this team come out playing with some legitimate confidence, fueled by a ton of home-field support.
Michigan State is also dealing with some significant injury losses, including their star running back, starting linebackers, and starting cornerbacks. I expect the Badgers’ defense to thrive against a below-average quarterback and a limited group of playmakers.
As long as the Badgers offense avoids the costly turnovers we saw in the first half last week, I don’t see how Michigan State’s offense can keep up.
Prediction: Wisconsin 24, Michigan State 6
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