Vegas sets modest win total for Wisconsin football entering the 2025 season
The bar is set pretty low for Wisconsin football in 2025. Can Luke Fickell and the Badgers beat the odds against a brutal Big Ten schedule?
Las Vegas oddsmakers have spoken. The 2025 college football win totals from FanDuel have dropped; for the Wisconsin Badgers, the number is 5.5. That’s not a misprint. That’s not some slight from Vegas. That’s just the reality of the proverbial mountain that Luke Fickell and the program need to climb.
Because when you look at the Big Ten conference as it’s currently constructed, with USC, UCLA, Oregon, and Washington now officially in the mix—and Wisconsin’s schedule featuring road trips to Alabama, Oregon, and Indiana, all College Football Playoff team's from a year ago, plus Michigan—it starts to make sense why they set the bar where it did.
In this league, and with this schedule, 5.5 isn’t some bold statement — it’s a pretty honest reflection of where the football program stands until it proves otherwise. The truth is, the best wins of the Fickell era so far have come against Rutgers and Minnesota in 2023. And sure, reclaiming the Axe matters. But if that’s your high-water mark? The bar’s got to move.
Now, I actually think that number’s fair. And we’re going to get into the why behind that, the Badgers outlook, and what it would take to reach a bowl and turn this into a year worth remembering.
So, why does 5.5 feel like the right number? Because as of today, this Wisconsin team hasn’t proven it’s capable of anything more. The Badgers are 0-6 against ranked opponents under Fickell — and with this 2025 schedule, they’re about to see more than a few heavy hitters.
And here’s something else worth pointing out: When you take a closer look at the projected starting quarterbacks that Wisconsin is set to face in 2025, one thing jumps off the page: inexperience.
Whether it’s freshmen like Michigan’s Bryce Underwood and Middle Tennessee’s Stanley Lofton, or transfer QBs still acclimating to new programs like Iowa’s Mark Gronowski and Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, a majority of these matchups feature signal callers either new to their system or still getting their feet under them at the Power Five level.
Even some of the heavyweights—like Alabama, Ohio State, Oregon, and Washington—will be breaking in young, unproven options at quarterback.
That doesn’t mean those games suddenly tilt in Wisconsin’s favor, but it does level the playing field just a little. And if the Badgers can find a way to pressure opposing quarterbacks — something they haven’t done nearly enough the past two years — and flip the field with a few timely takeaways, they might just steal one or two they’re not supposed to.
Let’s look at the schedule: Miami (Ohio) and Middle Tennessee? Those should be wins. But after that, things get tricky.
Maryland and Illinois are both at home, and neither matchup is a guaranteed win based on how things looked in 2024. You’ve got to win at least one, probably both, if you’re climbing over that number.
Indiana and Minnesota are on the road and will absolutely be circled as toss-up games. Wisconsin didn’t play Indiana last season, but lost to them in 2023. Now in Year 2 under head coach Curt Cignetti, the Hoosiers are coming off a playoff appearance in his first season at the helm. The roster has been overhauled, but this version of Indiana is no walk in the park. The Badgers also fell to Minnesota in 2024, and it was no accident. It was pathetic.
Now, stack that next to road trips to Alabama — the kind of nonconference matchup Wisconsin likely won’t schedule again anytime soon, because there’s just no upside in today’s playoff era — plus Michigan and Oregon. Toss in a visit from the defending champion Ohio State Buckeyes and Washington — the one game in that stretch where, all things considered, the Badgers might be favored.
And the Wisconsin coaching staff knows exactly what they’re up against.
"From within the building, it's all about this mountain to climb. We didn't accept every [potential] transfer guy that we had a chance to get," Fickell explained. "Every transfer that was possibly coming in here, the first thing we did was set the schedule down in front of him to say, "Look, just want to make sure you understand what this mountain looks like." So not only emphasizing what this thing will look like, but understanding that the humble and hungry mindset and attitude has got to be that you're willing to do what we need to do, because it's not going to be easy.
"We know that there's going to be some peaks and valleys in this climb, but I think it's got to start from within. I don't talk about the schedule a lot, but we just talk about it being a mountain to climb."
And the harsh truth? Fickell still hasn’t delivered a signature win since arriving in Madison — the kind that signals a program turning the corner in a meaningful way.
He was brought here to get Wisconsin over the hump, to provide a clear coaching advantage on the sideline. That hasn’t materialized yet. The Badgers have come up short in every shot they’ve had against ranked opponents, and 2025 is loaded with the kinds of matchups that could change that narrative or cement it.
But if you’re taking the over, you’re banking on something changing — a new offensive identity under Jeff Grimes, steady quarterback play from Billy Edwards Jr., and a level of toughness and execution we haven’t seen from this team since before Paul Chryst was fired.
You’re also buying into the changes Mike Tressel is making on the defensive side of the ball, especially the push to add size and physicality to the front seven with the hope that it all starts to click in 2025.
And look, there’s absolutely a path to six wins and a bowl game. I see it. The pieces are there if everything comes together. But under this regime, we’ve consistently seen a team that plays to the level of its competition, for better or worse. And before any of that can take shape, the Badgers need to figure out how to play complementary football and finish games.
If there’s one area that absolutely has to improve, it’s closing.
Wisconsin was outscored 72-15 in the fourth quarter of its seven losses last season. That’s not just a stat — it’s a red flag. One that speaks to a deeper issue: the inability to finish. And until it changes, skepticism is more than fair after a 12-13 start to the Fickell era with one of the nation’s toughest schedules looming and a roster full of new faces trying to mesh.
So yeah, 5.5 isn’t just the number—it’s the mirror. A reflection of what this teams earned. So what does success actually look like in 2025? It’s not just about the final win total—at least not to me. It’s about how Wisconsin competes when the lights are brightest. Do they play with urgency? Can they land a punch as an underdog?
To me, five wins is the bare minimum to avoid calling the season a failure. That would still be disappointing, but if the Badgers show progress in identity and execution, it wouldn’t feel like a free fall.
Six wins and a bowl game? That’s a solid year given the schedule. Seven? Now you’re talking about momentum. Anything beyond that would be a massive breakthrough, because if they hit eight wins, it means something finally clicked in a big way. The real question is whether this program can finally take a step forward—one that shows up on Saturdays.
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I'll take the over. But barely :)
Sounds realistic. If the offense can control the ball better and score 20 +/- point s a game, the pressure is on the defense to perform. If the defense is on the field less, that will help. Fickell talks "complementary football." If we get it this year, we can beat Vegas, but its time to show that this staff can coach as well as it recruits via the portal (which is largely a matter of money these days).