Wisconsin basketball stock watch: Max Klesmit's volume shooting, Badgers bench depth, and more

Which early-season trends from the Wisconsin men's basketball team are we buying or selling after three games?

Mandatory Credit: Badgernotes.com Photographer Aaron Frey.

Greg Gard and the Wisconsin Badgers basketball team are off to a 3-0 start for the fourth time in his tenure after securing wins at home against Holy Cross, Montana State, and Appalachian State.

Under Gard, the Badgers are now 68-22 (.756) in regular-season non-conference games. That consistency has been even more pronounced at the Kohl Center, where they’ve gone an impressive 50-5 (.909) on their home court.

"Anytime you get a chance to play outside competition, I think you take something from it," Gard told reporters. "You learn from it defensively. I think we have gotten better, but there are still some things going through the film that we have to improve upon. I think we've taken a step development-wise in a good direction."

While the sample size is relatively small, some trends that could shape the Badgers season are beginning to emerge.

We’re diving into Max Klesmit’s usage as a volume three-point shooter, looking at the Badgers' depth and also the possibility of John Blackwell taking the next step. Plus, we’re evaluating Steven Crowl’s uneven start, the influence of Kirk Penney on the team's offense, and much more.

Which of these trends should we buy or sell as the season progresses?

Here’s a look at some of the early season storylines I’m buying or selling and a few others I still need to contemplate for the Wisconsin men's basketball team.

Buy: Max Klesmit's increased volume as a 3-point shooter

Klesmit has long been regarded as one of the best shooters on the Badgers roster, and through three games, the 6-foot-3 guard is showing just how much he’s embraced that role. Coach Gard has made a point to increase the team’s three-point attempts, and as a result, Klesmit now seems to have an unrestricted green light from beyond the arc.

With a green light firmly in place, Klesmit is not only taking more threes (8.0 per game) but also thriving in this new role, shooting 37.5%, which is right around his career average. Is the Neenah (Wis.) native going to be streaky at times? Sure. Regardless, I firmly believe that everything eventually regresses to the mean.

Thus far, Klesmit is averaging 16.0 points, 2.0 assists, and 3.0 steals a game. If this Wisconsin team wants to consistently attempt 25-30 three’s per game, having a combo guard and microwave scorer like Klesmit take his fair share makes sense.

"That's the beauty of this offense; everybody has the opportunity to play to their strengths," said Gard.

"I think he's gotten better at playing with vision... his confidence and knowledge has taken a big step forward."

Will Klesmit's attempts stay as high as eight per game? That’s tough to say, but I’m confident that number will be much higher than his career average of 4.7. I'm buying this role for Klesmit.

Hold: John Tonje being the leading scorer

There is no question that the addition of John Tonje from the transfer portal was the most impactful move this Wisconsin coaching staff made during the offseason, with the benefit of hindsight.

The 6-foot-6 wing is leading the team with 17.7 points, 5.3 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game while shooting an efficient 55.2% from the floor. The thing that's stood out most to me is Tonje's aggressiveness in attacking the rim, as he's averaging 5.7 trips to the free-throw line per game. If that aspect of his game is sustainable, then sign me up.

Tonje has always been a threat to shoot it from beyond the arc. In many ways, that's what Tonje was brought in to do: space the floor. But Tonje has been in attack mode and is looking like a viable candidate to lead the Badgers in scoring this season.

I’m not saying I don’t buy it—Tonje is clearly a critical piece in the puzzle coach Gard is trying to assemble. But I’m not ready to fully commit to the idea that he’ll finish the season as the team’s leading scorer. We'll revisit this one as the nonconference slate rolls on; for now, I'm in wait-and-see mode on Tonje being this team's leading scorer. I need to see Tonje maintain this level of production against a quality opponent first. I'm still unsure if he can take a quicker, more athletic defender off the dribble. Time will tell.

Either way, Tonje was a massive pickup in the transfer portal for Wisconsin.

Buy: Nolan Winter has taken a step forward

Nolan Winter is one of the foundational pieces that this Wisconsin basketball program would like to build around. Winter has all of the tools you could want from a stretch big man in a system like Gard's. As a true freshman, the Lakeville North product showed flashes, but he needed a big offseason to take on a bigger role —and by all accounts, he delivered.

Not only did Winter beat out Northern Illinois transfer Xavier Amos to earn a starting spot next to center Steven Crowl, but he's also put on weight and shown signs of a developing low post-game.  

After averaging 2.4 points and 1.8 rebounds in just over nine minutes per game as a true freshman, Winter is up to 10.3 points and 6.7 rebounds in 20 minutes per game as a sophomore.

"He's seven feet and can move, block shots, shoots it really well, really skilled for that size. He's still a pup," Gard said. "He has some baby giraffe moments, but he's going to be a really good player. It may happen in November, it may happen in February, it may not happen until 2026. I don't know, but I like where he's going. He's got the right approach."

Wisconsin has a history of recruiting big men who make significant leaps from year one to year two as they mature more physically. Winter seems to be following that same trajectory and could become a far more impactful contributor than many anticipated—especially if he can hold his own against more athletic fours. I'm loving what I've seen so far. Stock up.

Sell: The Badgers' bench depth

Before the season, coach Gard spoke about the goal of being "two-deep at every position," and I thought there was a decent chance that would be the case. However, I haven’t been as impressed with the overall depth this team has shown through three games as others appear to be.

I say this as someone who loves Kamari McGee and Carter Gilmore as much as anyone, but I question whether you can compete for a Big Ten title or a high seed in the NCAA Tournament with these two being your top options off the bench. It's clear to me they've both improved quite a bit since last season, so I don't want to undermine their ability.

There’s still time for Amos to develop and potentially carve out a bigger role in the rotation. His three-point shooting and athleticism are qualities that could be valuable assets for the Badgers. I've even liked what we've seen from redshirt freshman Jack Janicki. He's played with great energy, keeps the ball moving, and is another shooting threat.

But when I look across college basketball, I have a hard time seeing the team's depth as anything more than passable — rather than a plus. Guys like Central Arkansas transfer Camren Hunter, Daniel Freitag, and, to a lesser extent, Riccardo Greppi are all players I thought could vie for time.

With so many new faces, this team may be more of a slow burn than in years past—in fact, that feels like the most likely scenario. That said, I’m not sold on the bench depth behind the starting five.

Hold: John Blackwell’s path to being ‘the guy’

Before the season, there was plenty of buzz about sophomore guard John Blackwell being the team’s best player. After three games, I can see why some might be ready to dismiss that idea—but I’m not one of them.

"He [Blackwell] came back in June, and I felt he knew he was the best player on the floor," Gard said. "He wanted to be the best player on the floor. He wanted to dominate. I don't like to compare to the past, but Johnny came back with that same type of mentality as a sophomore."

The 6-foot-4 Michigan native is currently averaging 12.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 39.4% shooting from the floor and 41.7% from beyond the arc. While Blackwell has missed his fair share of easy looks around the rim, it’s important to note that he’s taking on a much larger role on offense as a ball handler this season, with quite a few new teammates, and that kind of responsibility naturally comes with an adjustment period.

I’m not concerned at all about Blackwell’s ability to finish. He’s as tough as they come around the rim, and as the game slows down for him in his role as a ‘point guard,’ I expect his scoring to pick up. I also can’t see him earning fewer trips to the free-throw line per game than he did as a true freshman. We all expected more, but I don’t think we were wrong about Blackwell being “the guy” this season — we might just be a little early.

Sell: Steven Crowl’s uneven start

I will die on the hill that this fanbase underrates Steven Crowl. The 7-footer has been rock solid. Crowl has played in 116 games and averaged double-digits in scoring each of the last two seasons.

The gripe is that Crowl needs to be more consistent. Last season, Crowl scored 15+ points in 12 games but was held to single digits in scoring in 14 others. That kind of up-and-down production is something the Badgers need to even out if they’re going to reach their ceiling.

Through three games this season, Crowl is averaging 10 points, 4.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists. The concern with that stat line lies in his first two games, where the Minnesota native managed just seven points against Holy Cross and six against Montana State before bouncing back with 17 points against Appalachian State.

"He's so unselfish and at times too unselfish," Gard said. "Playing one-on-one, there's not a lot of guys in the country that are going to be able to handle him over the course of the time he's on the floor.

"I want him with an aggressive, score-first mindset, specifically if you catch it deep, which is always the goal. He's got a great feel for the game, but continuing to have him be more aggressive finishing at and through people makes us better."

There will always be some variance from Crowl as a scorer to some extent. He's unable to play aggressively and hunt his shot on a night-in and night-out basis for whatever reason. But Crowl is someone who commands a lot of attention in the low post and can make opponents pay as a passer—something we’ve seen him do plenty of times over the years.

Big Steve is a critically important piece to this offense and arguably the most important player on the roster. I'm not sweating the slow start from Crowl because the teams that Wisconsin has matched up against have been forced to defend him in a way that others won't in conference play. It’ll even out.

Crowl has had some clunkers in the first three games. But to quote the great Marshawn Lynch, "I know I’m gonna get got. But I’m gonna get mine more than I get got doe." And I think Crowl will, too.

Buy: Kirk Penney’s Influence

It’s hard to overstate just how much the Badgers struggled offensively the season before Kirk Penney joined the program as a Special Assistant to the Head Coach.

Since his arrival, though, the Wisconsin basketball team's offensive metrics have seen a dramatic improvement—finishing No. 17 in adjusted offensive efficiency last season, according to KenPom.

"You're really trying to spread the floor and create as much spacing as possible, giving guys the opportunity to drive if they want to, a lot of room for the bigs to roll without too much help, and also having players that can shoot the ball," Penney told Badgernotes.

Now, coach Gard has the team hoisting three-pointers left and right, and they've also tweaked their system in a way that more closely resembles an offense that Penney played on when he was overseas. Not to mention, the Badgers have chosen to roll with a starting five that doesn't include a traditional point guard, which is something Penney told me at local media day he wasn't overly concerned about.

"I think traditional positionings, you still have to shed some thought to it,” Penney shared. “With this offense, there are lots of ways to play it really well and it won't necessarily be traditionally positioned.

“If we can be generous with the ball, it’ll bode well for us."

Penney’s influence on this program is undeniable, not just in the team’s offensive adjustments but in the philosophical shift under Coach Gard. The willingness to embrace modern spacing concepts, a non-traditional lineup, and a free-flowing style reflects Penney’s fingerprints all over this team. The fact that he’s earning more than two assistant coaches speaks volumes about how much Gard values his impact—and the results would seem to back it up.

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