Why Wisconsin men's basketball ceiling rests on the shoulders of John Blackwell
Wisconsin’s ceiling hinges on John Blackwell. Can he make the leap from All-Big Ten honorable mention to star and lift the Badgers higher?
Each new college basketball season comes with its stars prepackaged. There are the preseason All-Americans, the blue-chip freshmen, and the household names carrying NBA upside. But the truth is, the players who often end up defining a team’s ceiling in a given season aren’t always the preseason headliners. It’s the guys who are solid to begin with, take a step, and then find another gear and elevate their game that can turn an already promising roster into one capable of becoming dangerous.
For the Wisconsin men’s basketball team, that player is John Blackwell.
Blackwell has already proven he belongs among the best in the Big Ten. He’s been a rotation piece and a high-level starter who earned All-Big Ten Honorable Mention recognition as a sophomore. But the looming question heading into the Michigan native’s junior year is whether or not he can be more than a really good player. Can he be the difference-maker that turns Wisconsin from a solid top-half Big Ten team into a threat to compete for a conference regular-season title and make a significant run in March?
After averaging 8.0 points and 3.2 rebounds per game as a freshman in 2023–24 on 45.5% shooting from beyond the arc, Blackwell exploded in year two with an opportunity to step into the starting lineup.
The sophomore season he just completed gives you plenty of reason to think that a huge step forward is on the horizon. Blackwell became one of the team’s focal points, alongside John Tonje, nearly doubled his scoring to 15.8 points per game, and averaged 5.1 rebounds and 2.2 assists across 31 minutes a night. According to BartTorvik, his PRPG climbed from 2.3 as a freshman reserve to 3.5 while taking on lead-guard responsibilities.
That workload showed up in the numbers: his offensive rating dipped from 116.9 to 108.7, but his usage rate spiked from 20.6 to 25.7, a sign that Wisconsin trusted him to carry a much larger share of the offense.
There were nights when he looked like far more than a luxury No. 2 option, and more like a future No. 1. His 32-point outburst in a blowout win over Iowa wasn’t just a box-score filler — it was the kind of night where every possession seemed to tilt because he had the ball. Blackwell also recorded back-to-back double-doubles against Washington (24 points and 10 rebounds) and Minnesota (25 points and 11 rebounds), proving his game wasn’t limited to just scoring. He’s a capable rebounder in addition to his ability to facilitate, and has a chance to impact every possession.
When all was said and done, Blackwell led the team in scoring 11 times during the 2024-25 season, with four 25+ point performances. Not too shabby for a player whose only Power 5 offer came from Wisconsin.
Add it all together, and you’re not just looking at a plus starter. You’re looking at the résumé of a very good player, with the trajectory of being someone who’s climbing toward stardom in the Big Ten Conference.
And this year’s Wisconsin team is going to need that star.
What Wisconsin needs from Blackwell
The Wisconsin Badgers’ roster has experienced significant attrition due to graduation this offseason, with the loss of notable players such as John Tonje, Max Klesmit, Steven Crowl, Kamari McGee, Carter Gilmore, and Markus Ilver. All of these players filled key roles on a team that won 27 games and earned a 3-seed in the NCAA Tournament. They also lost Xavier Amos, Daniel Freitag, and Camren Hunter to the transfer portal.
Since then, Wisconsin’s staff has reshaped the roster with the additions of Nick Boyd at point guard, Andrew Rohde on the wing, and Austin Rapp at forward, all of whom are expected to start this season with Blackwell and Nolan Winter. They also brought in Braeden Carrington, Elijah Gray, and Aleksas Bieliauskas from Lithuania to compete for minutes with Jack Janicki, Riccardo Greppi, Jack Robison, and a freshman class consisting of Will Garlock, Zach Kinziger, and Hayden Jones from New Zealand.
Those pieces help, but they aren’t designed to carry the load of being a go-to scorer. In the post-Tonje era, the Badgers need a certified bucket getter who can take over possessions late in games, shoulder a high usage, and keep defenses honest. That’s the jump Blackwell is being asked to make, and it’s one that Greg Gard feels confident is on the table.
“I think the confidence level, whether the NBA experience was what brought that out of him or if it’s just going into year three, you can see he’s bigger physically, he’s leaner, he’s really trimmed up, and he’s cut in some areas that he didn’t have the definition in before,” Gard said of Blackwell. “And he’s come with a more dominant mentality. As you can see, when we play, he has the ability to take over and really dominate games.”
That growth isn’t just about what Gard sees in practice. Blackwell also declared for the NBA Draft last spring before ultimately withdrawing ahead of the deadline. Going through that process gave him exactly what he needed: direct feedback from NBA evaluators on where his game stands and where it still needs to go. For a player entering a pivotal junior season, that kind of information is invaluable. The hope now is that he takes those lessons, builds on them, and re-enters the draft next year with the résumé and polish to earn the kind of grade he was pushing for.
That’s the opportunity on the table in Year 3.
The area everyone will be watching for growth, especially the NBA scouts, is the jump shot. Last season, he shot 32.8% from beyond the arc on 4.9 attempts per game (up from 1.9). That volume reflects confidence, but it also reflects defensive scouting because teams were willing to give him space. It was also a drop from his freshman year, when he hit 45.5% from deep on a much lower volume with defenses more focused on his teammates — an unsustainable number, but one that showed the shot is in his bag.
Suppose that number climbs to 35% or higher, then the whole floor changes. His ability to attack downhill becomes more dangerous, his midrange looks get cleaner, and suddenly, Wisconsin has a guard who can dictate terms instead of reacting to them. His free-throw shooting (81.7% career) and mechanics suggest that improvement is within reach.
Now, I don’t think the answer is as simple as labeling him as a streaky shooter or penciling in a leap to knockdown status. The truth probably lies somewhere in between the high-volume, heavily-scouted sophomore version and the lower-volume freshman who wasn’t circled on scouting reports. It’s also worth remembering that last season, Blackwell was asked, out of necessity, to be Wisconsin’s primary ball handler in Kirk Penney’s offense. That role inflated his usage and put a lot on his plate.
“You’re really trying to spread the floor and create as much spacing as possible, giving guys the opportunity to drive if they want to, a lot of room for the bigs to roll without too much help, and having players that can shoot the ball,” Penney said, explaining the ins and outs of the system.
“If you’re open, you’ve got to knock it down, especially from the 3-point line. I think all of the pieces we added are capable of that. It’s just adding different layers and ensuring we can disguise it for the competition.”
With Boyd arriving to handle point guard duties, Blackwell can shift back into his more natural off-ball role. Without the constant responsibility of facilitating and creating for his teammates, there’s reason to believe his efficiency from three will climb when he’s free to focus on shot-making.
How the pieces fit around Blackwell
It’s not just about Blackwell sliding back into a more comfortable spot on the floor that has fans and coaches optimistic. It’s about the entire ecosystem surrounding Blackwell, because this year’s potential lineup has the makings of something we really haven’t seen a ton of in the Gard era.
Blackwell is expected to share the floor with Boyd, Rohde, Rapp, and Winter often, a group that gives Wisconsin unusual versatility. In the backcourt, Boyd, Blackwell, and Rohde all bring ball-handling chops and the ability to stretch defenses with their 3-point shooting. That ability to be interchangeable matters, especially with Boyd and Rohde combining for over 160 career starts before ever stepping on the floor in Madison, and Blackwell proved his durability by starting all 37 games last season.
Rapp adds to that foundation with 30 games of starting experience as a freshman at Portland, where he connected on 35.2% of his 3-point attempts. Winter has appeared in 73 games in two years, including all 37 a season ago, while hitting 35.8% from deep. Together, that starting five has plenty of experience and the potential to space the floor in ways Wisconsin hasn’t often had the chance to lean into, playing five out when they want to and creating the kind of spacing that lets their guards attack downhill while still keeping defenses honest from beyond the arc.
The bigger picture here is how Wisconsin has shifted stylistically. This program is coming off a year where it averaged 80.1 points per game, its highest scoring mark in 54 years. That didn’t just help them win games, it also helped sell transfer portal players on what Gard is building.
Wisconsin’s offense, which has finished in the KemPom top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency the past two seasons, has opened doors that weren’t there before, playing with a pace and freedom that felt unrecognizable.
And the numbers back it up. Wisconsin’s adjusted tempo last season, according to KenPom, came in at 68.0, which ranked 149th nationally. That might not sound blazing fast until you realize it was the quickest tempo of Gard’s tenure, and the fastest Wisconsin team KenPom has ever tracked dating back to 2001-02. For context, eight of Gard’s first nine teams lived in the 300’s nationally in pace. So yeah, this is new ground.
Defensively, he gives Wisconsin what it values most: dependability. At 6-foot-4 with a strong frame, he can guard both backcourt spots and even some smaller wings. Coming out of high school and on the AAU circuit, Blackwell was often tagged for what he brought on that end of the floor. And while he hasn’t fallen short as a defender in Madison, the context of what he was asked to do last year matters. He spent much of the season guarding opposing point guards while also initiating the offense, and for high-usage guys, that’s usually where the cracks show because you have to get yourself a break somewhere, and often it comes on defense.
The numbers echo the reputation: he was tough to exploit. In guarded catch-and-shoot situations, Synergy graded him as excellent (86th percentile), forcing low efficiency with disciplined closeouts and his strong frame. Across all defensive play types, Blackwell sat in the 74th percentile on field goal attempts against. So, opponents didn’t find easy matchups with him. He may not gamble for steals or create chaos, but he holds his ground, contests without fouling, and makes you earn it.
The defense probably won’t be flashy, but it doesn’t need to be. Blackwell is system-sound, tough to exploit, and rarely makes big mistakes. He’s not a lockdown wing-stopper, but he’s steady, dependable, and never a liability, and that’s plenty valuable when paired with his offensive load. With Boyd now in place to handle the lead-guard duties, Blackwell could show a little more as a defender on the wing. Still, given the scoring role that awaits him, it’s possible he remains more solid than spectacular.
What stands out about Blackwell’s sophomore season isn’t just the counting stats, it’s some of the efficiency markers that back up the eye test. Per Synergy, Blackwell ranked in the 82nd percentile on spot-ups, hitting better than 42% of those attempts. That’s the profile of a reliable floor spacer, and it’s why defenses had to account for him every trip.
On no-dribble jumpers, Blackwell showed signs of elite mechanics off the catch, averaging 1.158 points per possession, which is the kind of repeatable stroke that stretches defenses and forces rotations. Even when tasked with more creation, the numbers held. As a pick-and-roll ball-handler, he graded in the 65th percentile, “very good” for a player still learning to run offense at scale. And when isolated? He was excellent, ranking in the 84th percentile, converting half his shots in those spots.
That’s high-level production when the ball is in his hands.
Off the ball, his feel showed up, too. He ranked in the 77th percentile as a cutter, showing that he was opportunistic and decisive when defenses relaxed. Even at the rim, where he sat in the 55th percentile, his functional strength and touch allowed Blackwell to finish above average. Add in the volume, nearly 70% of his attempts came on jumpers, and the efficiency still graded “very good” at the 69th percentile. That’s not just volume for volume’s sake. That’s confidence and a skill set that can translate.
But here’s the other side of it: if Blackwell wants to jump from “very good” to star in the Big Ten, there are gaps that need to be closed. Transition efficiency has to get better. He ranked in the 24th percentile in those spots, struggling to finish open-floor chances at the same level he does in the halfcourt. Off screens, same story, just 22nd percentile, a reminder that he’s far more dangerous with his feet set than running off movement.
That theme also appeared in some unexpected places. On uncontested catch-and-shoot looks, Blackwell was in the 13th percentile, actually performing worse when wide open compared to when he had to react to pressure. That points to rhythm and mechanics more than skill. Around the rim, nearly 20% of his shots came as layups, but the efficiency didn’t match the volume. He ranked in the 43rd percentile, fine but not great.
Adding finishing angles and touch on those in-between plays, such as floaters, runners, crafty layups, would make his whole package harder to guard. Defensively, the weak spots mirror the offensive ones: transition. Opponents scored efficiently when they could get him in space, and his ball-screen containment was more average than elite. Not a liability, but not yet a lockdown piece either. And that’s more than serviceable.
Blackwell’s game, through the lens of the advanced data, is precisely what you’d expect from a high-level Big Ten guard. The spot-up shooting, isolation scoring, and cutting game are bankable strengths. The transition and finishing package are the swing skills that could turn him from being an excellent starter at Wisconsin into the kind of two-way guard NBA scouts are circling. Sharpen those areas, and Wisconsin isn’t just getting a star. They’re getting the centerpiece that changes the program’s ceiling.
“I feel like there are things I haven’t accomplished in college yet,” Blackwell said. “I want to boost my stock — I want to be a first-rounder next year. And I want to keep getting better. But ultimately, I want to win. I fell short of my goal, but I want to be in Wisconsin history forever.”
In the end, the story is simple: Wisconsin’s ceiling rests heavily on Blackwell’s growth in Year 3. If Blackwell takes that next step, if he goes from being a plus starter to a high-level star, then the Badgers can dream about something bigger than simply contending to be a top third team in the Big Ten. They can think about March. They can think about a second weekend run that has eluded them since 2017. This is the season where Blackwell can go from being one of Wisconsin’s top backcourt options to being the kind of star who changes the direction of a program.
The talent is there. The role is waiting. Now it’s about taking that final step.
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