Gard Your Fickell: Badgers MBB 2022-2023 Season Recap
2022-2023 Analytics Season in Review
Intro to Gard Your Fickell:
BadgerNotes Readers,
I am Gard Your Fickell, and I'm excited to introduce myself as a new member of the BadgerNotes Team.
I specialize in providing in-depth basketball and football analytics to “try” and better inform you and ME about Badger Sports! My passion for data analysis has led me to create a wide range of content around Badger Sports, from breakdowns of individual player performances to strategic analysis of game plans and coaching decisions.
Some of which I’ll repost here to give you guys a “Flavor” for what I’ll be doing going forward:
Phil Longo Hire Analysis
Tanner Mordecai Breakdown
How Predictive are QB Recruit Rankings?
UW Football - PlayCalling Analysis
Foul Up 3 or Play it Out?
“Analytics” can be a buzzword, and I don’t pretend to have all the answers; I simply view it as a way to refine how we, as fans, look at the abundance of data in Sports. With that data, I then try to provide you with a deeper understanding of the game and the factors that contribute to success on the court or field.
Gard Your Fickell
2022-2023 SEASON RECAP
Season Trends
NoT eFG%
FT Margin
Close Game Analysis
STOP FACTOR
OPP STOP FACTOR
GG is Fine
Net of Turnover (NoT) eFG%:
UW vs. OPP:
From the Kansas game until Minnesota, UW only lost the NoT eFG% battle once (Wake Forest), which was ELITE-level basketball.
Tyler Wahl goes down, and we enter the January of Misery!!!
UW wins the NoT eFG% battle only once (MSU) and fails to win that game
HUGE losses vs. IU & Maryland
UW responds with wins against OSU & PSU
Games against Nebraska & Rutgers, in which UW failed to close them out, begin to push UW out of the NCAAT picture and onto the bubble!
UW has arguably its most dominant win of the Season vs. IOWA!!
Then…Games vs. Michigan, Purdue & OSU pop our bubble!
We lose the NoT eFG% Margin battle TWICE to end our Season
In no way should we have won that game vs. Oregon besides our FT Shooting (That was not the trend all year)
NoT eFG% & Scoring Margin:
2021-2022:
2022-2023:
Notice any differences? Any Similarities? I did.
UW, apparently even in ‘Really Good’ years & ‘Mediocre’ years, gets ‘BEAT BAD’ in ~30% of games.
BEAT BAD = (-5% or Worse NoT eFG% Margin)
UW Actually ‘BEAT-UP’ twice as many opponents as last year (11 vs. 5)
BEAT-UP = (5% or Better NoT eFG% Margin)
In close games (NoT eFG% Margin -5%> X < 5%)
UW fared much, much worse in 2022-23 (9-6) vs. 2021-22 (18-1)
More on that later!
FT MARGIN:
This, um, speaks for itself!!!
Back to the close game analysis because this is where the FT Shooting plays a big part!