Game Breakdown: Wisconsin Badgers vs. Purdue Boilermakers
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The Wisconsin Badgers suffered a mistake-filled yet heartbreaking 34-28 double-overtime loss at the hands of the Michigan State Spartans last week.
Just one week removed from looking like the entire football program had found new life.
Like every other game, the Badgers have struggled in this season; costly turnovers and a lack of consistent secondary play proved to be too much to overcome.
Credit to Michigan State, though, as they played to their full potential for the first time all season.
Quarterback Payton Thorne looked sharp, completing 21/28 pass attempts for 265 yards and two touchdowns.
NFL prospect Jayden Reed was Thorne’s main target and had his 1st breakout game of the season. Recording nine receptions for 117 yards and the walk-off touchdown in the 2nd overtime.
We’re on to Purdue…
The Badgers desperately need a win, with bowl eligibility still in reach, but it won’t come easy this week as Wisconsin (3-4, 1-3 Big Ten) returns to Camp Randall Stadium to take on the surging Purdue Boilermakers (5-2, 3-1 Big Ten). Kickoff is at 2:30 pm (CST) on ESPN.
To find all of our content for this week’s game, visit badgernotes.com.
Game Breakdown
Purdue Boilermakers
The Boilermakers are winners of four straight, with their only two losses coming against No. 14 Syracuse Orange and No. 16 Penn State.
Purdue runs a pass-heavy attack on offense, led by quarterback Aidan O’Connell.
O’Connell had a very strong Junior season in 2021 and hasn’t slowed down one bit this season.
The Senior signal-caller has thrown for 1,950 yards – good for 15th in the nation, with 14 touchdowns and five interceptions.
His 66% completion rate is a little lower than you’d like it to be after posting a 75% rate last season, but still very solid.
One of the most impressive parts of O’Connell’s season is that he’s thrown for 360 or more in four of the Boilermakers’ six games this season. Don’t be surprised if he adds to that number against the Badgers.
Boilmakers’ Receivers…
Charlie Jones definitely looks like he sits when he pees and probably attended bible camp every summer growing up, but hey, the guy can ball.
Jones is the main target of the Purdue passing attack, and it’s not particularly close. He has 29 more receptions than anyone else on Purdue’s roster.
He also has four games with over 130 yards receiving this season, leading to his gaudy season stat line of 62 receptions, 735 yards, and nine touchdowns. Jones is top 10 in the nation in all three categories.
Another receiving option who could give the Badgers problems is tight end Payne Durham (that’s a football name if I’ve ever heard one).
Durham has 33 receptions on the season for 310 yards and three touchdowns. Durham has also collected at least four receptions in five straight games.
Purdue’s running game…
The Boilermakers’ run game takes a back seat to their passing attack but has still been fairly productive this year.
Running back Dylan Downing is expected to miss a few weeks with a foot injury, leaving Freshman Devin Mockobee as the top running back on the roster.
Mockobee had been productive on limited carries the first six games of the season, but he exploded last week against Nebraska as the top option. Piling up 178 yards on 30 carries while adding a touchdown for good measure.
This season, Mockobee has 453 yards and five touchdowns on 80 rushing attempts. He’s also a capable receiver reeling in 13 receptions for 130 yards.
Purdue’s Defense
The defense hasn’t been Purdue’s strong suit this year but has done just enough for the Boilermakers to keep winning games.
They’ve given up over 26 points in five of seven games this season and have allowed over 30 points in both of their losses.
One bright spot for the Boilermakers has been their run defense, giving up just 100.7 yards per game on the ground. This is mainly a result of their opponents having to throw the ball when they get behind. Regardless, it’s still impressive.
A Wisconsin team averaging 170.6 yards rushing a game, led by superstar running back Braelon Allen, will certainly be a tough challenge, though.
No single player jumps off the stat sheet for Purdue, but as a whole, they’ve put up some solid numbers.
They’ve recorded 16 sacks as a team this season to go along with 10 interceptions, four forced fumbles, and two defensive touchdowns.
If Purdue gets a two-score lead at some point in this game, that’s when I’d be most worried about their opportunistic defense.
Now, onto Wisconsin…
Wisconsin Badgers
Last week the Badgers’ offense couldn’t get out of their own way with costly turnovers at the most critical points in the game, including the fumble by Braelon Allen, which ultimately cost them the game.
Shooting themselves in the foot has been par for the course this season for the Badger football program, a trend they can hopefully break as they return home for the first time in two weeks.
The key to victory for the Badgers is simple this week, score a lot of points.
You can say all you want about running the ball and controlling the clock to keep the Purdue offense on the sideline, but I think the Purdue offense is just too explosive for that strategy to work.
The weakness of the Boilermakers’ defense is on the back end, allowing 248.4 yards per game through the air.
It doesn’t always show, but Graham Mertz has been good for the Badgers this year, and when he’s in his comfort zone can really sling the ball around the field.
I feel like I say this every week, but a little more creativity in the passing game is much needed in this matchup.
The Badgers don’t have the most explosive weapons, but that’s where game planning and play design need to cater to what talent you do have.
Braelon Allen will probably do Braelon Allen things in this game and has settled in the past two weeks topping 120 yards in each game.
But Allen alone won’t be enough to win this game.
The Big Fellas…
Another concern is if the Badgers get down by two scores in this game, Purdue can unleash its pass rush.
Offensive line play has been above average to good this year, but not the dominance we’ve come to know as Badgers’ fans.
One positive is we might see starting right tackle Riley Mahlman back in the lineup for the first time since week one.
If he’s active it will be interesting to see how many snaps he plays, or if he starts for that matter.
We should know more before kickoff on Saturday.
Wisconsin Badgers Defense
Granted, it was in a double overtime loss, and the offense turned the ball over three times, but they allowed 34 points and 290 yards passing. On top of that, they let Michigan State complete 73% of their passes for a staggering 9.7 yards per pass.
Not the results we were looking for, to say the least.
The secondary has a much bigger challenge this week with the Boilermakers’ prolific passing attack, and chances are it won’t go well.
The only prayer for the Wisconsin Badgers’ pass defense this week is to generate pressure at an alarming rate.
That won’t be easy, though, as Purdue has only allowed 11 sacks this season.
Wisconsin’s run defense has been solid this year, but they are allowing a surprising 114.4 yards per game on the ground.
It’ll be interesting to see how much Purdue tries to run Devin Mockobee after giving him 30 carries last week. In all fairness, that game did have 80 total points, and Purdue also threw it 54 times.
Still, his usage will be something to monitor if Wisconsin can’t stop the run consistently.
Final Thoughts
I’ve called multiple opponents the Badgers have played not good this year, and maybe I’ve been wrong this whole time…It might be the Badgers who aren’t very good.
I believe Wisconsin will keep this game close and be able to put up some points on the Purdue defense, depending on Graham Mertz and the passing attack’s performance.
If Mertz does play well, look for Saturday’s game to be a shootout, which in my 29 long years on this earth has been a rarity for the Badgers.
But do I think our beloved Wisconsin Badgers will win this game? No. No, I do not.
Purdue hasn’t beaten Wisconsin since 2003, but all good things must come to an end.
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Badgers Country. Let’s ride.