The result of No. 25 Wisconsin at Iowa on Halloween will carry a disproportionate amount of weight relative to the rest of the Badgers’ games this season.
And rightfully so.
Wisconsin football is coming off a massive upset win over No. 16 USC, a win that pushed them to 5-2 overall (3-1 B1G), and of course, a spot within the AP Top 25 for the first time since Week 2 of the 2023 season.
This Badgers’ defense is utterly lights out, and while the offense remains a work in progress, it has an identity. It’s no longer aimlessly drifting between backup quarterbacks and mismatched scheme and personnel.
And yet, what transpires inside Kinnick Stadium on Saturday at Big Noon Kickoff could — and probably will — define the rest of the season for Wisconsin, lockdown defense and revitalized offense be damned.
Head coach Luke Fickell is 0-3 against Iowa. He lost 15-6 in his debut season in Madison before getting absolutely pummeled 42-10 and 37-0 in the ensuing two matchups. Wisconsin made an enormous deal out of the Iowa game last season, having its players do 42 push-ups after each spring practice for the 42 points Iowa scored in their previous meeting, only to lose by a wider margin and in more embarrassing fashion last fall.
How the Badgers have performed against Iowa has generally been a representation of how their seasons have unfolded under Fickell. But beyond the rivalry, the Heartland Trophy, and Fickell’s less-than-stellar track record against the Hawkeyes at Wisconsin, this staff needs to win this game to prove they’ve changed course after drifting pretty far astray the last three seasons.
Based on what Fickell said at his weekly press conference, he knows damn well that he needs to take care of business in Iowa City. He spoke with great reverence for the Hawkeyes, but also in a way that suggests he’s torn those previous games against Iowa apart, searching for the answer against Kirk Ferentz’ squad.
“I can tell you right off the bat here, we’ve been outrushed in this game over the last three years, 740-350,” Fickell said “I think the turnover margin the last three years is 7-1. There are a lot of things that haven’t gone well for us in this rivalry game, and we need to do a whole lot to change that. It’s not gonna be easy. I don’t know if there’s a tougher place to play in the country.”
As the final scores suggest, not only did Wisconsin lose to Iowa the last two seasons, but they got thoroughly embarrassed. The battle for the Heartland Trophy is, without fail, decided by who controls the line of scrimmage.
Iowa manhandled the Badgers on both sides of the ball the last two years, besting Wisconsin at its own game. Not to say that the Hawkeyes don’t also pride themselves on a suffocating defense and rushing attack as well, but if this team is who they say they are — a tough, nasty and disciplined team that wins with its play in the trenches — they’ll turn the corner and knock off Iowa in Fickell’s fourth try.
Shutting down the run, of course, will be of the utmost importance. And while Wisconsin is No. 16 nationally in run defense, allowing 96.6 yards per game, Fickell has recalibrated his expectations based on what the Hawkeyes have done to previous iterations of his team.
“I don’t wanna put too much on our ability to stop the run so far, because it’s going to be a completely different challenge for us to stop the run [against Iowa],” Fickell told reporters.
If they lose to Iowa, the Badgers could still win the eight or nine games that much of the fanbase clamored for this offseason. They could get back to the postseason, make a respectable bowl, keep their recruiting class intact and load up to try to get back to double-digit wins in 2027.
But none of that would change the fact that a loss to the Hawkeyes on Halloween would put a serious damper on the 2026 campaign.
One of the biggest reasons is that after the Iowa game, Fickell is fresh out of opportunities for a signature win. Only games against Rutgers, Maryland, Purdue, and Minnesota remain. While the battle for Paul Bunyan’s Axe is, of course, another monumental game in terms of the direction of the program, those Iowa losses have been the ones that’ve defined his tenure. This is arguably a bigger game than Black Friday against the Gophers.
Wisconsin football isn’t doomed if it can’t beat Iowa. But it might feel that way if the Badgers lose. Fickell and his team need to go into Iowa City and take this one.
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