Is Wisconsin football back? After a dominant three-quarter performance against Eastern Michigan, the Badgers look like they could finally be trending in the right direction.
A massive test awaits them in Week 4 as they open Big Ten play. The Badgers will travel to University Park to take on the No. 13 Penn State Nittany Lions in front of what should be a lively crowd at Beaver Stadium.
“There’s no place that can be as wild or crazy or a louder environment than Happy Valley, especially later at night,” Luke Fickell said. “In a game that means a lot, not just because it’s our game, but because it’s an opening game for them, the Big Ten, and a new coach. In my time in the Big Ten, there’s no tougher place to play than Happy Valley.”
The BadgerNotes staff shares their two cents on the program and predictions for the upcoming game against Penn State.
Here are the BadgerNotes staff predictions for Week 4.
Staff predictions
• Dillon Graff
Season record: 3-0
Wisconsin is 2-1, but I’m still not sure we know much more about this football team than we did entering the season.
The defense has largely held up its end of the bargain and gives Wisconsin something it might have a chance to hang its hat on as the season progresses. The offense is a different story. Colton Joseph has provided some of the playmaking ability this unit desperately needed, but the Badgers still haven’t shown they can consistently move the football against a real defense.
Penn State is where that becomes a much bigger problem.
The Nittany Lions haven’t exactly been tested themselves, but they’ve allowed just 7.3 points per game and have been particularly difficult to throw against. Going into Beaver Stadium and asking an offense that’s still trying to find itself to consistently sustain drives against that defense is a tough sell.
The jury is still out on how effective Wisconsin’s offensive line really is, and the running game remains a work in progress. Until either becomes something the Badgers can consistently count on, it’s difficult to see this offense controlling a game against a front like Penn State’s.
Wisconsin’s path is pretty straightforward.
Mike Tressel’s defense has to keep explosives to a minimum, and that starts with the defensive front holding up against the run and consistently winning first and second down. Wisconsin needs to force Penn State into third-and-long situations where they can be more aggressive and let the pass rush — which has been underwhelming — do its job. If the Badgers can create some havoc, get off the field and hang around into the second half, maybe you give yourself a chance for something weird to happen.
I’m just not convinced this offense can hold up its end of the bargain long enough to get there. We’ve seen Wisconsin play stretches of respectable football against better competition. The issue under Luke Fickell has been sustaining it and/or coaching aggressively enough to actually try and win.
Against Notre Dame, the Badgers were within 13-10 at halftime before the game got away from them. Penn State is another opponent where a few empty possessions, protection breakdowns, or missed opportunities can turn a competitive game into something that doesn’t look particularly competitive on the scoreboard.
I think Wisconsin’s defense keeps this respectable for a while. Eventually, Penn State creates separation and shows why it’s the better team.
Prediction: Penn State 34, Wisconsin 13
• Christian Borman
Season record: 3-0
After Wisconsin’s dominant 54-10 win over Eastern Michigan, the spread is just 9.5 points, which says a lot about what Vegas thinks of the Badgers, considering how good Penn State has looked so far this season.
Rocco Becht has been on fire to start the season, throwing for nine touchdowns and no interceptions. After the Wisconsin secondary struggled against CJ Carr in the second half of their Week 1 game against Notre Dame, I worry we might see something similar against Becht.
The Wisconsin defense has seemingly caught a massive break. The Nittany Lions’ leading receiver, Koby Howard, will miss this week’s game after getting injured against Buffalo in Week 3.
Ultimately, I think things boil down to the Badgers’ defense playing as well as they did against Eastern Michigan and getting the running game going. I think Colton Joseph can make things happen, and the emergence of Tyrell Henry and Jacob Harris is encouraging.
It will be helpful to get Abu Sama and Emerson Mandell back for the game, but the rushing attack still makes me nervous. On top of that, I still haven’t seen a Luke Fickell-led team go on the road and pull off a big upset like this.
I liked the progress I saw last week, and I think the Badgers can pull out a win, but I’m not quite there yet.
Prediction: Penn State 28, Wisconsin 17
• Seamus Rohrer
Season record: 3-0
What does Vegas know that we don’t?
Penn State - 9.5 seems like a shockingly narrow spread. The Nittany Lions have been largely dominant all season. They’re ranked No. 13. This game is at Beaver Stadium.
Wisconsin is certainly an improved team this year, and I can see them keeping the game close late into the brisk central Pennsylvania evening. But too much has to go right for the Badgers to win in my eyes.
Penn State quarterback Rocco Becht has been nearly flawless, and the Badgers haven’t created much havoc defensively. They’ve also struggled to run the ball at times, which doesn’t bode well on the road against what appears to be a solid, if not dominant, defensive front.
If Wisconsin pulls off this upset in Happy Valley, the entire tenor of the season changes and the Badgers could be ranked for the first time since 2023. If it loses, we’ll be asking the same old questions of Luke Fickell and this team.
Prediction: Penn State 31, Wisconsin 17
• Charlie Pietz
Season record: 3-0
A win on Saturday would be Wisconsin’s biggest since knocking off No. 9 Minnesota in 2019, and there’s more riding on this game than most fans realize. Pull off the upset in State College, and the narrative around Luke Fickell could flip overnight.
But that win requires two halves of COMPLIMENTARY FOOTBALL, something the Badgers haven’t consistently delivered against Big Ten competition in years. Time and again, they’ve hung with good teams for a half only to unravel after halftime adjustments. In an environment like Beaver Stadium, against a quarterback like Rocco Becht, the margin for coaching miscues or self-inflicted errors is razor thin. Until Wisconsin cleans that up, they’ll keep coming up short in these spots.
I expect Colton Joseph to have a strong day both through the air and on the ground, and the defense to hold its own for most of the game. But a handful of sloppy mistakes ultimately cost Wisconsin this one, per usual.
Prediction: Penn State 24, Wisconsin 20
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