Analytics: How Can Wisconsin OC Phil Longo Improve in the Red Zone?
Analytics and Insight into what Phil Longo will bring to the Wisconsin Badgers RedZone Offense, and where that stacks up vs. the Best in CFB.
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We're back, and I'm so excited to bring you the TOP 10 Wisconsin Football Stats you need to know for the 2023 Season!
Well, it will be more like the Top 10 Analytics Themes you need to concern yourself with for the 2023 Season. Mostly because just giving you ONE STAT just isn't enough. I want to flex those statistical muscles a bit more for you.
Theme #10: Phil Longo's Red Zone Offense
Phil Longo's North Carolina Red Zone Efficiency Rank in 2022 was 106 in the FBS. This is about 24 slots behind the 2022 Wisconsin Football Offense. So there are legitimate concerns around Longo's Scheme translating to Red Zone Scoring heading into the 2023 Season.
How will Wisconsin Football perform in the Red Zone with Longo:
First, we need to analyze where Longo diverged from the Top 3 Red Zone (RZ) Offenses (Georgia, Ohio State, Tennessee) in 2022. I'll start by looking specifically at Play Types, particularly the % of plays that used Motion/Play-Action/Run-Pass Options (RPO)s and what % of plays in the Red Zone DIDN'T.
Top 3 Offenses used 2X MORE Motion (Pre-Snap)
Top 3 Offenses also used ~25% Less Play-Action/RPO
This is very interesting to me; it seems, at least to this X's & O's novice. The Top Offenses in the RZ are trying to disrupt the Defense and get them out of position Pre-Snap with Motion. Whereas Longo's scheme looks to be trying to disrupt the Defense with Post-Snap deception. With a healthy dose of Play-Action/RPO.
This might be where the problem lies for Longo. There just isn't enough TIME or SPACE for longer developing plays (RPOs/Play-Action Passes) to bear fruit in the Red Zone.
If you could take one thing away from this post, just look at the YPA on Passes for Longo using Motion (Pink Column) with 6 or less in the box. On those 5 Plays, the average gain was 9 Yards/ATT. That needs to be exploited much more going forward for Longo in the Red Zone. Longo also sees outsized returns when using motion on run plays when there are 7 or more defenders in the box.
Let's Dive Deeper into Longo's Red Zone Play-Calls:
One thing I've been seeing around Twitter is analysis around efficiency with Play-Type based on how many defenders are in the box. So it begs the question, do Phil Longo's Play-Calls make sense based on these factors?